Data and Beyond
AUC 0.65 Perfectly Captures Noisy Bequest Signals
On 3.6% imbalanced synthetic donor data, untuned XGBoost delivers AUC 0.65, 47% recall (17/36 true positives), and 0.07 precision—twice random—while SHAP confirms tenure, age 70+, low recency as top drivers, validating faint real-world patterns amid intentional noise.